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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-10-27T04:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-27T04:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22139/-1
CME Note: SW partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and faintly visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2. Early development not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to beacon data gap. Source is unclear but may possibly be associated with faint dimming and field line movement in vicinity of AR 13132 (S10W32), visible in SDO AIA 095/171/193 starting around 2022-10-27T02:30Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-31T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/22143/1
Model Inputs:
2022-10-27T04:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=295.0, HalfAngle=46.0, Time21.5=2022-10-27T23:20Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-10-31T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-02T04:00Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-01T03:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221027_232000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 81.93 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-10-28T12:04Z

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